Srin’s Realistic political scenario……

Jagan party will take vote share of =70% PRP+70%Congress+10%TDP
=14.7+27.02+3.4=45.12
More Analysis on MLA seats. In 2009 also my analysis and prediction came true See here There are total 294 MLA seats in AP

If congress doesn’t give Telangana
———————————

Telangana: MLA – 119
TRS 60
Jagan 24(Because in Telangana there is no strong leader in congress)
TDP 20
Congress 15

Andhra: MLA – 122
Jagan 55
TDP 45
Congress+PRP 22

Rayalaseema: MLA – 51
Jagan 30
Congress 10
TDP 10

Total
Jagan 109
TDP 75
TRS 60
Congress+PRP 47

If Congress gives Telangana
—————————

Telangana: MLA – 119
TRS 50
Jagan 10
TDP 10
Congress 45

Andhra: MLA – 122
Jagan 65
TDP 45
Congress+PRP 12

Rayalaseema: MLA – 51
Jagan 35
Congress+PRP 5
TDP 10

Total
Jagan 110
TDP 65
TRS 50
Congress+PRP 62

 

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37 Comments

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37 responses to “Srin’s Realistic political scenario……

  1. Sivasankara Reddy

    Hi Friends,

    I will not agree the analysis made by Srini … I hope is it base less and logic less ..

    These are the flaws I have seen …

    1) last time PRP got 17% of votes .. if we get 70% out of 17%, then it is 11.9% not 14.7%

    2) Present total 4 strong & PRP is there .. at this stage getting 45.7% of votes is highly impossible …

    3)If any party manage to bag 45% of votes, then it easily wins 180+ seats (getting 45% among 5 parties)

    However I strongly agree on the number of seats jagan will win .. that is 110 seats .. there might be 10% of variation to this number …

  2. rajnjj

    ippatinuche seats votes enti andi its long ways ahead fisrt manchi cadre at l village ward level manchi strong young ppl ni develop chesovali and who are influential at village ni identify cheesi cheradeyali for a new party symbol ni public tiskovelai ante its lil tough but we can take example off idependent candidates who won as mlas how they took their elections symbol all in a matter off 15 days and winning vote bank unna leaders big or small 3 or 4 or 5 or 10 thousand votes untayi village level lo allati varini identfy chesi party lo lagali iam confident jagan will build the party at grass root level better then congress or tdp

  3. Sreedhar

    Jai Jagan….

    At first So happy to see this blog Posting…I wish to see him as CM Soon….

  4. This is survey 6 months back(lot diff now)
    NTV_Nielson Survey:
    in %, in bracket before
    Cong: 33%( was 36%)
    TDP: 26%(24)
    PRP: 16(16)
    TRS: 13% (4), trs expected to get 30% in T region
    http://www.andhraelections.in/2010/06/20/ntv-nielsen-org-marg-survey-results/

  5. Gurava Reddy

    The simple arithmetic does not work in politics. 2+2 is not 4 and 4-1 is not 3. My argument is that a lot of sections of the society that traditionally backed TDP have moved away and the process is still going on. The pendulum swings towards someone that people have trust in as well as they think will win. Local leaders started sensing as to who was going to win and back that party. The whole cadre (I mean the whole) will leave Congress to be with Jagan as they sense he is the one that can and will win, if not right away then in a couple of months. More than half of MLAs also will be with Jagan. There is no traditional Congress voting any more in the state. It had transferred to YSR and now will be with Jagan. Not only they love him as the son of YSR but also they appreciate his leadership, charisma, and ability to win. I am confident of YS Jagan landslide in Seemandhra. Yeah, I agree that it’s too premature to think of votes and seats.

  6. sharath

    You can never project election results and its too far ahead. Only way to win elections is work for people.

    • Srin

      Guys,
      Thanks for your feedback.
      This is present scenario.If elections held in January2011.
      It depends on time management and Media Management and ground work of our party.my analysis is just a simple one.

      You are seeing TDP is like PRP .No never they have a very strong cadre and strong back gorund of BCs

      See traditinal votebank of parties in AP till 2009.
      Congress-Reddys,Velamas,Vysyas,Toorpu Kapus,munnuru kapus,Malas,Madigas,STs,Christians(They are 1% of AP population),Muslims(11 % of AP population)
      TDP-Kammas,Rajus,Gouds,Yadavs,Other BC communities.
      PRP-kapus,BCs
      TRS-Velamas,No traditional votebank till now.

      Almost both sides congress and TDP got good equal background.
      This is being happend since 1983 onwards.But in the election,always the neutral people (they are not belonged to any party)plays crucial role.Based on their switching that party wins the election.
      Jagan anna should pull the cadre equally from congress as well as TDP.
      So we should concentrate more on TDP than any party.
      In Krishna,Guntur,Prakasam,Anantapur districts TDP is very strong.Ofcourse they are not in power,so it seems weak but see the ground reality.In General before KCR comes into the picture,TDP all strong holds are all in Telangana only.

      • Gopalakrishna

        TDP strong in chittoor too. 2009 results Cong-7, TDP-6 & PRP-1. Cong majaority in Chittor assembly is 1650 & in Puthalapet it is just 1000. A small split will bring Cong. strength to 5 of 14 seats. KKR got 53,000 votes . Where as TDP+ PRP combined got 87,000 votes. That is also scary to KKR. Galla’s 8,000 lead will vanish if partial Cong regular vote bank moves to Jagan. Same will be case with Madanapalle too. Only peddi reddy can confidently say he can win. But this time KKR will see Peddi Reddy’s end and Peddi Reddy will see KKR’s end. That might help opposition. Kuthuhalamma may win but depends on split of congi votes.

        • Nitin Reddy

          TDP is strong in Srikakulam dist also…last bye election with death of Congress MLA

          Congress 2009election byelection
          52,000 57000

          TDP 40,000 52,000

          PRP 32,000 15,000

          just within 6 months of General elections TDP gained 12,000 votes at expence of weak PRP….people thought congress would sweep this election because of double sympathy of death of YSR and local MLA…but shockingly TDP gained because of stupid Chiranjeevi…

          Jagan should concentrate in UA districts about how to attract PRP cadre

  7. No separation of AP:
    TRS+PRP+CONG wins T
    Jagan Wins SA

    Separation:
    TRS+Jagan Wins both

  8. Ranga Raju

    Guys,
    Srin’s Analysis seems to be realistic, keeping the fact that elections are one year away and TDP is still strong opponent and there are strong individual leaders in congress who can win on their own. I would say PRP in Rayala Seema is goner including chiru and congress would get atleast 10 to 15 seats .. there could be disgruntlement in the YSR party tickets, sabotages etc. Caste equations will play major role in costal areas .. so to be on the safer side we need to cross that mark .. otherwise TRS+Cong+PRP try to come to power .. YSR Party’s next step is to destabilize TDP which will be our major opponent .. so we need more TDP leaders rather than cong leaders .. we have plenty of them and they are ready to come any time .. CBN gained little sympathy (ofcourse it will be short lived) but there are lot of disgruntled leaders are out there and their economic status is poor .. I feel like they are more vulnerable and time to act to bring some them in to the fold ..

    • Gopalakrishna

      more TDP leaders will keep Cong leaders away. Moreover, TDP leaders cannot forget YSR’s high handedness in booking cases on them. Looking at TDP cader will not help much. PRP was new then and there was a reason for the shift of TDP cader.

  9. Dude, Hope you don’t mind, first take off the list of 294 constituencies. It’s taking too much space. Give us just analysis. List we can get from net

  10. Gurava Reddy

    I disagree with this analysis and seat projection. There is a strong undercurrent in favor of Jagan and against Congress in the whole state. Peoples’ love for YSR and hatred for Congress party is at an all time high. TDP lost support among lot of sections of the society. Jagan enjoys overwhelming support among Christians, Muslims, SCs, STs, Reddys, and independents, especially the youth. The prediction of only 110 for Jagan (too less, should be 170), 65 for Congress/PRP (too many, should be half), and 75 for TDP (too many, should be half) is not right in my opinion. Just spoke to a friend, who came back from Palamur and he too agrees (and surprised) with me about the support levels Jagan has in his district. Normally, politicians being selfish, will back the winning horse and there is no better one than YS Jagan in our state at the end of the day. And, Jagan is showing his vivid leadership skills to the full spectrum of the society. They don’t see anyone else close in this aspect. This is my opinion.

    • Gurava reddanna,

      I agree about the JCurrent! But, when it comes to the election week, it’s all about groups in the villages. As of two big groups (TDP and Cong) with another lil group: PRP. Now, Congi has to spilt into two, may be bigger part goes with JCurrent(for your happiness! :). I do not think TDp loose it’s base, because they are more enegetic nowadays thinking they have a chance( remember, the same TDP thinking of extinction in last few months of YSR). TDP leaders are very high on their hopes, so work hard for future fruits. See, not a single local leaders swith to J yet( forget about Nallapu and Balanagi Reddy, they are two special cases)
      Just take look at Vijayawada MP and MLA seats 2009 and 2004 elections, and pay attention to the %s. antha vg kaadu anna

      RP BOMMAREDDY

      Now, 3 big groups and one small group in a village..the fight starts. In some villages the lil group may disappear and joins with CONG or J depends on the candidates parapathi and dabbu. Or PRP may get seat sharing with congi. TDP may gain some %votes, due to pple tend to give chances back and forth( okasari daaniki, inkosaari deenki ane rakam). Also few anti-congi votes goes to TDP too.

      • Gurava Reddy

        RPB, There is a certain something you are missing here. I don’t want to go back to explaining what sections of the society are backing Jagan. I have been observing politics keenly from 1977 Janata Party elections (yes, nijame nenu bhoomi puttinappatinundi vunnattu feeling vasthundi kadaa?) and could guess Indira Congress would in 1978 as I saw the affections that the downtrodden in the villages had for Indira Gandhi. I see the same for Jagan now. As per TDP is concerned, their vote share was all time low 28% in 2009 and I predict it to go down to less than 25% in the next elections. I am ready to bet my house on it. Local (secondary leadership is, of course with Jagan and these will be massive tilt towards him just before the elections. You will see. So, in this present conditions I clearly see a big sweep for Jagan in Seemandhra and a respectable share in Telangana, where TRS and J Party are the only two that will be left standing.

        • Nitin Reddy

          Bro..ur making it look very extremely easy..it will lead to over confidence…and there are many flaws in ur analysis…if only Kammas are supporting TDP who make up ony 3% of pop,then how come they secure 28% voting …How come Revanth reddy ,Nagam etc Reddies win from TDP..there are many ST,SCs Mlas from TDP..Adilabad MP seat won by ST candidate from TDP..You are basing entirely on votebanks for ur analysis which will help only 25%…75% depend on local groups and credibility of local candidate as mentioned by Gurava Reddy garu…

          U say congress has 36% voting and TDP has 28% voting ..but TDP got less % because it contested only in 216 seats rest shared by TRS and Communists ..but Congress contested in all 294 seats…if u take only those constituencies where TDP and Congress fought directly
          ..the voting % difference is just 1% which is very narrow…So TDP is going to be real threat than Congress…Jagan cannot take any party(congress or TDP) lightly…he has to fight them both with equal energies

        • Gurava Reddanna,
          I resoect your observation and wisdom. But, don’t you think the politics changed a bit? Instead of just depending on one person ( like Indira, NTR), the polling influenced by local strong leaders. Thats the reason, I ask if you take a look at Lagadapati or rayapati MP seats or MLA seats in those and distribute the votes as per new politics… it’s not pure sweep.

          In 2009:
          Lagadapati: 4.29 L
          TDP : 4.16 L
          PRP: 1.6 L

    • Gurava Reddy

      One more flaw in Srin’s analysis. It will be a sweep historically, for any political party when it reaches the 45% threshold in our state. Congress party’s share was only 36% when winning 157 seats in 2009 in almost similar scenerio.

  11. RK

    J anna should have balanced views on Telangana.

    2 things here.

    — Majority YSR fans in T region are in support of T formation.
    — So, J should not go against their aspirations if we want them to support our aspirations. It should be give and take, is my feeling.

    • Gurava Reddy

      >>– So, J should not go against their aspirations if we want them to support our aspirations. It should be give and take, is my feeling.>>
      RK, Please do not use they/we. We are all one people, YSR followers. It should not matter if the state is bifurcated or united for us to be together in supporting YSJ.

      • I strongly support Gurava reddy, from when telugu people become them and us? Deep in my heart we’re all Indians. I still think the fight for T is kind of raathi yougam. I understand their sentiment. But where it stems from? poorness, no developement, corruption. Their miserey is nothing to do with some one else’s success. It’s all due lack of planing, corruption. Almost 99% of T political leaders became rich, HOW? If you can answer this, you can answer T issue. We’re all pawns( poor ppl, students and youth). We need ASSAM type revolution, till then JAGAN is only option for the ENTIRE state.

        I’m proud to be TELUGU man away from my home country. I treat T or SA friends exact same way. I may live another 50 yrs, till then I want to only one kind of TELUGU person. Weather I’m poor or rich depends on me and my hardwork, not where I’m from.
        RP BOMMAREDDY

  12. SKC report by tomorrow..

    రేపే శ్రీకృష్ణ కమిటీ నివేదిక
    న్యూఢిల్లీ: జస్టిస్ శ్రీకృష్ణ కమిటీ మధ్యాహ్నం 12 గంటలకు కేంద్ర హొం మంత్రి చిదంబరానికి నివేదిక సమర్పించే అవకాశం ఉంది. శ్రీకృష్ణ కమిటీ నివేదిక సమర్పించడానికి ఈ నెలాఖరు వరకు గడువు ఉన్న విషయం తెలిసిందే. గడువులోపల నివేదిక సమర్పిస్తామని కమిటీ మొదటి నుంచి చెబుతూనే ఉంది. రేపు నివేదిక సమర్పించి కమిటీ తన మాట నిలబెట్టుకోనుంది.

  13. Nani

    Does anybody know about
    sakshi’s 2011 year calendar…

  14. alashyam asha bhangam… okkakaru ga queue kadutunnaruuuu

  15. You have done very good work.
    I agree to most of it, except for the number of seats for TRS.

    TRS do not have support in many districts in Telangana . They will score zero this time in Hyd, Khammam, Ranga Reddy etc., where there is no sentiment.

    To Hide this fact, they go with a alliance everytime and leave majority at these places to the partners like CPM, TDP last time. Even this time , KCR cannot contest in all 119 . In someway he will go into alliance with “any party”. so, take some 20 out of him.

    Also, Jagan has very strong wave in some parts of telangana which is under cover due to T-sentiment.
    The recently concluded local polls in warangal have given enough hints of the same.
    Possibly add to 10 to jagan and 10 TDP/ Congress out of the 20 taken away from TRS.
    jaganisthecm.blogspot.com

    • you are right jaganfan… i more or less agree with you… its only trs fear that is stopping jagan being projected as strong in telangana…

    • and one more thing is telangana radu ani oka sari spastam ayethey then things will turn to jagan anna’s favor with leaders from non trs parties forming a queue to join his party .. in case telangana is going to form same in seemandhra…. telugulo cheppali ante

      enaka noyee mudara goyee congress ki ee telangana chichu tho….

      • True. well said.
        More than anybody KCR knows the danger with jagan. That is the reason why did so much of nonsense when jagan wanted to come to Telangana. But even that turned sympathy for jagan. Ramesh in Warngal won the local body election defating the TRS much to KCR’s shock. He even conducted a internal meeting to discuss the range of threat.

        He already sending “feelers” to jagan by saying he will do deeksha in Jagan’s way with one lakh people. Now he is not commenting on Jagan also. If Jagan agrees , KCR is ready to go with him. but jagan has kept it on hold since there is a bit of time for that.

  16. ns

    Krishna Committee Result: 2nd SRC
    http://www.greatandhra.com/viewnews.php?id=25835&cat=15&scat=16

    I completely agree with this.

    If jagan support seperate telangana. mata tappina vaadu avutaadu, he better keep quite than supporting seperate telangana.

    • JaGun

      ns:

      Greatandhra.com is a trash site. But still, if SKC concludes 2nd SRC, then job is pretty easy for Jagan’s party. Jagan party will say, we respect TG sentiment and we want central govt. to declare a national policy for new states creation.

      If SKC concludes 2nd SRC, then Congress will be wiped out of Telangana forever. I am of the view tha SKC will not conclude anything.

  17. chaitanya

    I am amazed and couldnt say no to your analysis……Wow My apreciations have no words……

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