We have to consider the following aspects before drawing any conclusion on the India Today Poll.
1.Nielsen has good track record as far as opinion/exit polls are concerned In india. Today’s chanakya is another agency which did well in 2009 elections.
2. ‘India today’ uses the services of ORG this time not Nielsen. I think , they hired Nielsen in Aug 2011. India today’s track record is not at all impressive so far.
3. The ‘others ‘ category is not a homogeneous group. They will align with one of the two main coalitions (UPA and NDA) before the elections. The possibility of Third front is not bright
4. AP has clear trend ,YSRCP wave in Seemandhra and TRS in Telengana.It requires no poll for that matter.
5. A) The challenges YSRCP is facing is CBI and its consequences . B)Gaining ground in Telengana to manage comfortable majority apart from retaining the support base till 2014.
6. I do not expect any major change in the governance due to ‘ not so encouraging’ economic environment , remote controlled regime , Slender majority and lack of mass base for the leaders .
7. YSRCP may gain some ground in Telengana, if they can throw out some bold proposals for Telengana problem . They should avoid CBN type approach. The approach of YSRCP goes against the image of YSR. that is ‘decisive’ .’ Ok for separation’ if it does not harm any region or ‘United AP’ if the aspirations of Telengana are met .
8. Plan ‘B” should be in place to avoid the party from chaos and disintegration, if YSJ is arrested and remains in the custody for long period ( above 6 months). The organisation come in to play here. I guess there is a delay in projecting group of leaders for takeover in case of trouble.
There is hardly anything one can do about point 8 except ‘Wait and Watch’.The other possibility could be , Mid term poll , remote possibility but there is a chance.