రాష్ట్రంలోని మొత్తం 2,099 కేంద్రాల్లో 1093 జడ్పీటీసీ, 16,214 ఎంపీటీసీ స్థానాలకు ఓట్ల లెక్కింపు జరుగుతోంది.
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రాష్ట్రంలోని మొత్తం 2,099 కేంద్రాల్లో 1093 జడ్పీటీసీ, 16,214 ఎంపీటీసీ స్థానాలకు ఓట్ల లెక్కింపు జరుగుతోంది.
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Does any one of us think that tie up with CPI(M) would have given that edge to win atleast 3-4 MLA seats , which is going to be the deciding factor for 16th May? CPI(M) has base in Anantapur, Krishna & few other pockets. I definitely think yes, under very tight situations that kind of alliance will make difference, now that its gone, want to do a postmortem analysis 🙂
R u accepting ysrcp defeat ?
March to April ……….wave was in favour of tdp in godavari districts ……..after April 15 to may 1 ysrcp increased
I still feel we have EDGE bcos of Candidates, atleast 30% vote share is of candidates…. I guess we have more people trustworthy, reliable candidates than TDP in majority segments….If people choose to select the congress junk from TDP…..then GOD only knows what will happen to SA…
I am confident that the last One month whirlwind tour of our Leaders , intense ads in the tv, Mla candidates concentrating on their areas and the move of minority votes will help us win the majority seats for the assembly.
Even if we look at the National exit polls they are showing the clear improvement for YSRCP from Pre poll exit poll to Post poll exit poll.
My interpretation of the local polls is that we did well compared to the
120 yr old and 30 yr old partys ,with no local second rung leaders and poor organisation. Infact we have wiped out the cong from SA and they are the crooks who started the trouble .
It is not possible for most national exit polls to predict a minimum of 14/15 MP seats for YSRCP if there was a clear wave for Tdp/Bjp.(If we think there is a Modi wave in AP too). MP seats are far more difficult to win when compared to MLA.
I am confident that we will get the majority to form the govt. Lets wait and see !!
Why YSRCP will win and Jagan becomes CM:::::
*** In Rayalaseema, Nellore and Prakasam, there is Huge Wave to make “””Jagan as CM”””
*** Kapus/Muslims/Chirstians will vote for “””Jagan as CM””” in Krishna and Gunture Districts
*** 50% Kapus will vote for “””Jagan as CM””” in Godavari Districts, since YSRCP gave lot of tickets to Kapu candidates in Godavari Districts
*** Poor People and Lower Middle class people, irrespective of caste/religion will vote for “”Jagan as CM”””
YSRCP should be happy seeing Local Body Election Results
*** A party should be in power atleast once, to develop Strong Second Rung leaders, to manage Local Body Elections. YSRCP achieved this decent performance in Local Elections, with “””ZERO Local Second Rung Leaders””””
*** People who voted for YSRCP in Local Body, did that out of their Complete Love for YSR family in spite of weak YSRCP party organization.
>>>> YSRCP has weak Party organization compared to TDP. But YSRCP is strongly supported by Masses Love for YSR family, which will be completely reflected in MLA elections.
If not for the majority of MPTC & ZPTC for TDP in west & east godavari, it would have been considered as neck to neck. Unfortunately between 7Apr-7May this vote bank of godavari dist for TDP wouldn’t have been dented, only hope could be rebel candidates of TDP in west godavari, if that doesnt work then TDP will get no less than 25-30 (out of 34) in these 2 dist, which is a huge huge number and wave which only NTR created.
Dont forget, YSRCP gave many tickets to Kapus. Kapus do vote along those lines
Especially West Godavari but in East it seems there will not be much difference,if ysrcp losses this election means that will only because to west godavari,Any way i am confident this gap will be covered in south coastal and rayalseema
Assuming kapu’s they made their mind for TDP till 8th April and TDP also gave good number of tickets to kapu’s in east & west,only thing is YCP gave more in Krishna & guntur. Add to this pawan + modi factor, with less number of minority votes in east & west, i still see huge advantage for TDP in these godavari dist. Not sure if the TDP rebels in godavari will make a dent for 25+ seats number of TDP. I got to know from my friend in east godavari that YSJ has made “vangaviti radha” tour godavari dist in the night time, to negate pawan factor, not sure if that would make any change considering radha himself is a weak leader.
Another 48hrs it will be in front of our eyes 🙂
What the BJP-RSS’s own exit poll says
The BJP-RSS’s assessment is that the Telugu Desam Party will win eight seats, the Shiv Sena around 10 to 12 seats and Akali Dal will get five seats.
http://www.rediff.com/news/column/ls-election-sheela-says-what-the-bjp-rss-exit-poll-says-1/20140513.htm
CV reddy, what kind of sample size Jagan’s psehological team uses for polling..
If these predictions come true, It would be psephologist night mare to analyse what happened between 8th April – 7th May :-), no body can dare to conclude his analysis for this period 🙂
Uday, Let us not jump to conclusion that this is a major swing from Psehologists’ point of view. we know number of corporators and MPTCS, but we do not know votes shares. Lets say if we have 1000 voters in an assembly, and another 1500 another assembly. For municipal election all of them are divided into groups of 100. Election among those 25 groups of 100 people will be different from two groups of 1000 and 1500. Again, for MPTCS, it may be even complicated. 100 from 1000 group and 300 from 1500 group may comprise of one MPTC.
I hope you got my point. We are not psephologists, so lets not come to conclusion that something is not possible or inexplicable.
There is method to this madness (Not quoting pawan kalyan) 🙂
If YCP wins assembly, it is not as outlandish it may sound,
Sarma Garu, I don’t think muni polls are a leading indicator of much. Ycp will win or lose based on other under currents and cm preferences. It is hard to win local bodies for a brand new entity. But like I mentioned before, if TD ends up wining, it is b cos of an undercurrent that worked havoc. I agree that discrepancy between local polls and assembly are not inexplicable
And prajasakti poll seems to be exact copy of 10tv poll. Not sure if they are owned by same person/group or they used same agency to do the polls.
Both are non-corporate owned….I think…..
Both are same ownership.
They are same entity
Confidence and conviction that Jagan had when he said he will sweep polls was very striking. As far as I know YSRCP employes surveyors with more than 1 lakh sample thorught out AP. He did not have to lie, as election was over but for 15 more mins. NO need to fire up cadre or no need to play mind games.
If these predictions go wrong, either he employed wrong people or there was some issues with reporting.
At this point, I am not believing exit polls or I do not belive that there was a TDP wave. (Come on guys, agreed that TDP won municipalities, but with very few margins and they are voting for corporators).
If Jagans prediction does not come out, then there is some serious issue with their poll management. Anyone who worked or knows who worked closely with the campaign?
The critical point in poll survey is extrapolating from sample. It is a very difficult science . Praja sakthi and Tv10 shared survey
Selecting right sample is also critical for polling. I am sure Jagan hires decent psephologists. Not some random people, assuming that their poll management depended on this reporting.
From what I was told is that Jagan’s was biggest sample. Usually samples are in hundreds over all, but his sample is the largest. AS to which group voted for which party, I am looking forward these exit polls to learn.
in US they give us stats of dempgraphics. In india we do not care about these stats unless we lose.
Tough for me to give up. FOr some reason my mind refuses to. Two more days, we will know
Lets wait till 16th. These two elections hit us very badly. Now we have only hope. TDP is more confident.
But some how i feel that jagan was not able to counter modi and pavans allegations, esp. pavan. He hit us hard.
Positives for Jagan
YSR Schemes
Jagan rebellion , but faded a bit post release due to his reluctance to say that he would not support congress for at least couple of months
Sympathy
Sakshi
pro poor agenda
Negatives
Corruption and inability to counter it
Jgaan did’t give single interview to any channel on one to one
failed to build organization and acknowledge the role of organization
Image impacted due to Sabbam and Konda
Lack of experience
Not made any attempt to attract middle class and Lower middle class
CBN
+ve
Experience
Election management
Organizational strength
Shift of congress Vote
Modi and Pawan
Media
Loan waiver
-Ve
Credibility- negated with pawan and Modi
Anti Poor
delayed campaign
BJP.. Minority
nielsen gave YSRCP 125+ towards the end of March . I doubt if they were correct
Like I said Jagan may pull through but only 30% chances
Murthy Garu,
when Nielsen polls, they will ask who is better candidate for CM ? Jagan Or Bolli. Their number may be correct. Just dont brish them off because of Municipolls.
@ Sarma :- Couldn’t agree more, MLA elections results will be a testing to YSJ credible statements, he will loose credibility if YCP loose, based on his statement to NDTV “Mark My words, we are going to win”, there was no need for YSJ giving that statement. My gut feeling is TDP know that they have done good till 7th April, but not sure something hasn’t worked for them in MLA elections, we have seen what kind of Euphoria they have created in 2004/2009 elections, which is missing in 2014 MLA elections.
I’m not sure but the amount that got held by police in Siddhartha college has something to do with voting for dist in Krishan & Godavari dist?
Have TDP analysed that minorities votes was a tilting factor for YSJ till Guntur & part of Krishna?
There is an analysis that majority of the NGO votes have gone for TDP, so that a min 10 lakhs votes including their family members which will work in TDP favor.
YSRCP FANs::::::::::Just Chill
*** Imagine the TDP wave in MLA elections Exit Polls, especially after seeing an Artificial TDP wave in Local Election results, then there would have been Exit Polls 24/7 Hungama in Yellow Media. But why the Yellow Media is Silent on Exit Polls??
*** Lagadapati releases Exact Numbers in his Exit Polls Report but this time Lagadapati is talking like Balayya in Press Meets. Lagadapati is just expressing his Feeling/Love/Compassion/Sympathy to KDP Babu, but where is the God Damn Data of his Exit Polls???
*** Local Body election agenda is different from MLA elections agenda. For MLA elections, its JAGAN vs Anti-JAGAN agenda for Voters
*** See the Graph………..After Local elections results released.(Municipal to ZPTC)………the Trend is TDP is in Downfall and YSRCP is Gaining. These local body elections happened One Month before MLA elections. One Month is a very very long time in Politics especially when it is election time.
*** Predicting 2014 Exit Polls is a lit bit challenging considering the fact Four Districts, Godavari, Krishna and Guntur are influenced by Caste Card. Among these Caste Fanatics, it is tough to predict how many are pro- and anti- Jagan.
>>>>> May 16th will be a Prefect Thriller…………Every Second is a Suspense
sorry 4 zptc’s
cvr,
Manaku wave lekhapothe urvakonda lo 5 zptc’s gelavalemu.Manamu 5 % money spend chesivuntamu TDP tho comapare cheste
cvr,
nielsen predicts ycp 103-113
Is it relayed?
http://www.rediff.com/news/column/ls-election-sheela-says-what-the-bjp-rss-exit-poll-says-1/20140513.htm
మునిసిపోల్ల్స్ పోయాయి.. ప్రాదేశిక ఎన్నికలు పోయాయి…సో వైకాపా కు స్థానిక బలం లేదు అని అనుకుందాం.. ఇక మిగిలింది ఎం ఎల్ ఏ, ఎం పి ఎన్నికలు.. రాష్ట్ర స్థాయి ఎన్నికలు.. అంటే జగన్ ముఖ్యమంత్రి కావాలా వద్దా అని జరిగిన ఎన్నికలు.. ఇపుడు జగన్ గెలిస్తే అది వన్ మాన్ విక్టరీ అనే లెక్క.. ..చూద్దాం ..నాకు నమ్మకం ఉంది… కాంగ్రెస్ చెత్త ను తీసుకున్నందుకైనా తెదేపా ని చిత్తు చిత్తు చేస్తారని ఆశిస్తున్నా..
Municipal & ZPTC elections::::::
*** Exactly One Month before MLA and MP elections, TDP manufactured an Artificial Hype Wave
*** The Artificial Hype Wave for TDP is being reflected in the results of both Municipal & ZPTC elections
*** Artificial Hype Wave for TDP was created to give Boost to the TDP cadre and the game plan of Congress & TDP was to force Municipal & Local Body elections on a new party like YSRCP just before MLA elections and use those Municipal results before MLA elections to influence the Voters opinions. But fortunately, Supreme Court judgement, destroyed the game plan of TDP & Congress
*** Artificial Hype Wave for TDP was created with the newly Rented Congress leaders with 30 yrs industry experience and loads of Money Bags. TDP spent money like anything for these Municipal and ZPTC elections(For example:: In Nellore Municipal elections, TDP gave Rs.2000 to the voters and created a TDP Hype) , and wanted to win them at any cost, and show the Municipal results before MLA elections but Supreme Court judgement played spoilsport
*** After these Municipal and ZPTC elections, YS Jagan started campaigning and the Artificial Hype Wave of TDP got busted due to Various Factors.
*** Godavari Districts are going to play a crucial role in these elections. Anticipating this, Chandrababu hired the Pre-paid Party Pavan Kalyan to brainwash the people of these districts.
>>> Someone said in TV debates that Neelam Sanjeev Reddy once said that “””Winning a Ward member seat is much difficult than Winning a President of India post””””…………..This statement indicates that how difficult it is to Win Local Body elections even for Well established Parties with Organization support and Cadre-based support.
>>> In my opinion, a new party like YSRCP did exceptionally well in these Municipal and Local Body elections if we take into consideration the timing of these elections. Congress High command and TDP, jointly launched this master plan in forcing these local body elections at the last hour before MLA elections
>>> In the end, TRUTH and Fortune Favors the Bold.
One King JAGAN vs Hundred Conspirators (KDP Sympathizers)
*** Corporate Criminals like Ramoji and Reliance Ambanis
*** Lagadapati introduced JSP Party by KKR, and merged it to help KDP Babu. Sabbam Hari and other JSP MLAs sold out to KDP Babu just before Polling Day.
*** Venkayya Naidu forcibly merged Modi with KDP Babu, even though BJP can form govt. at centre without the help of KDP Babu
*** Pre-Paid Party Celebrity Pavan Kalyan, did all kind of Record Dances to influence the voters of Godavari Districts
*** Rest conspirators include JP, KA Paul, Kaaram Sivaji, AP NGO Ashok Babu
>>>> So many Dummies against One Man Jagan, who is the Real Mass Leader???
>>>> Bread and Butter of KDP Babu is to use the Caste Card of Godavari, Krishna and Guntur Districts. Kulam Kosam KDP………..KDP Kosam Kulam………..Jai Kulam Jai Jai Kulam
http://www.prajasakti.com/index.php?srv=10301&id=1102001&title=%E0%B0%B5%E0%B1%88%E0%B0%B8%E0%B0%BF%E0%B0%AA%E0%B0%BF%20%E0%B0%86%E0%B0%A7%E0%B0%BF%E0%B0%95%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%AF%E0%B0%82-%20%E0%B0%9F%E0%B0%BF%E0%B0%A1%E0%B0%BF%E0%B0%AA%E0%B0%BF%20%E0%B0%97%E0%B0%9F%E0%B1%8D%E0%B0%9F%E0%B0%BF%20%E0%B0%AA%E0%B1%8B%E0%B0%9F%E0%B1%80
Prajaskathi is a reputed newspaper….I think there is some credibility to it…..it is going to be neck and neck…..may see a repeat of 2009 type contests….no constituency will be done till the last vote is counted.
While Municipalities seem to have been a setback….for a fledgling party,the ZP performance is reasonable…..
In that light this opinion poll seems real
We do not doubt Praja Saksthi , but the their are not good survey agency
Possible, YCP will lose if there is was a TDP under-current….I dont think local body polls will be a leading indicator though…..
Wht has possibly happened is that the possibility of YCP win brought out anti-YCP votes out also in large numbers….this happened in the late 80s in UK I think when everyone thought Labor was going to win….all of a sudden there was a counter mobilization of the conservative vote which led to an unexpected Tory win…….
That maybe accounts pro TDP voters from KPHB and other settler colonies in Hyd going to districts in large numbers…..
Seems like sure shot win for both the parties are 50-60, game is for the rest for the rest of the 60 seats, if majority of tough fight 60 are in dist above west godavari , which are now considered to be strong areas of TDP then we are game, logic is every party want to have tough fight in their weak areas and strong areas to be confirmed in their pocket.
Thats the only reason Prajasakthi says YCP has the edge…”their confirmed” seem to be higher….where the fight is tough pendulum will swing both ways
I agree with you, seems like its clash of Jagan Vs anti Jagan for assembly :-), i’m not sure if all the settlers from HYD would have voted for TDP, after pawan’s provocating speech they would have sensed the unrest it might create in HYD, they would be happy to see KCR & jagan work hand in hand rather than KCR & CBN fighting day in day out 😉
I think caste plays a much larger role in Andhra than it does in T…especially Andhra folks who come to T also seem to bring their antagonisms and schisms to Hyderabad (and to USA also -:))……not meant as an offensive comment, just an observation…..so with that yardstick settler votes might have split…more buses to kamma belt, bad for YCP and vice versa
Someone said timesnow survey was fake itseems. This is the guy who predicted worst numbers for us.
I feel the chances fro TDP are now 70%. Local elections may be different but the wave from Srikakulam to WG is unprecedented. I am expecting 110 for TDP. The exit polls might have got it wrong
you are right. But 5 to 6 percent vote difference probaly change evrry thing. but the question will there be 5 percent differnece ?
No way do not forget, there is a Modi wave and people from Hyderabad travelled to their constituencies, pawan kalyan is another factor. generally such drastic change is impossible. 5% is too much a difference in elections.
CVR , i believe jagan has some voting as CM , and also minitories votes consoliddated infavour of YCP. 5fourty3.in is a bjp guy site , he gave 46-44 percent voting for YCP tdp in MLA. 46-46 for MP. I am optimistic.
I’m surprised even TDP failed to read the +ve wave they have in their favor :-)? Why would CBN would call pawan to campaign for him during the last week, what indication does he have that he is not going to make it. I wont think he would be so generous to give room for some one, that too someone from a major cast in coastal andhra, i guess he has clear indications that he lost all the minority vote totally after Modi travelled to andhra?
Murthy and Uday,
I beg to disagree with you both again. We do not know if there was a wave but only good ground work. YSRCP did not have enough cadre to do ground work at ward level.
Why would Babu tie up with Pawan by going to his home if there is a wave. They all do internal polls.
This is too complicated to simply analyze like this. We have two more days. Let us see.
This is what prakashakti exit poll has to say, i’m damn sure all the other exit polls have given one (or) the other party above 110+ , and now they are in dilemma to release it or not? I’ve total sense that there is a neck to neck fight on cards for 16th May. If you see Eenadu editorials starting from 25th april, they ran editorials on Jagan -ves for 2 weeks till 7th May, that itself is an indication of their understanding of the voter pulse.
మొత్తంపైన ఈ ఫలితా లను పరిశీలించినప్పుడు ఏకపక్ష ధోరణి అగుపించ డం లేదు. స్వర్ణాంధ్ర నిర్మాణం చంద్రబాబు వల్లనే సాధ్యమని ప్రజలు భావించారని టిడిపి పెద్ద ఎత్తున ప్రచారం చేసింది. అలాగే జగన్ను బలపర్చాలని ప్రజలు ఏనాడో నిర్ణయిం చుకున్నారనీ, తెలుగుదేశం ఘోరంగా దెబ్బతిం టుందని వైసీపీ చెబుతూ వచ్చింది. ఈ ఫలితాలను పరిశీలించినప్పుడు ఉభ యుల మధ్య గట్టి పోటీ వుందనీ, ఎవరూ అవతలి వారిని పూర్తిగా తుడిచి పెట్టే పరిస్థితి లేదని తేలిపోతుంది. ఈ విష యంలో తెలుగు దేశంకు ఎక్కువ నిరు త్సాహం కలగొచ్చు. నిజానికి ఈ ఎన్నికల్లో కాంగ్రెస్ అనే ఒక ప్రధాన శక్తి అదృశ్యమై పోవడంతో ఆ బలాన్ని తెలుగుదేశం వైసీపీ పంచు కున్నాయి. వారిలో చాలామంది మొదటే వైసీపీలో చేరగా చివరి సమయంలో కొందరు టిడిపిని ఆశ్రయించారు.
సామాజిక సమీకరణలు తీవ్ర ప్రభావం
సంప్రదాయ కాంగ్రెస్ ఓటింగు వైసీపీవైపు మొగ్గి వుండే అవకాశం ఎక్కువగా వుంది. ఇక సామాజిక సమీకరణల ప్రభావం కూడా తీవ్రంగానే వుంది. వపన్ కళ్యాణ్ రాకవల్ల వుంటుందనుకున్న ప్రభావం గోదావరి జిల్లాల్లో ఏమంతగా లేకపోవడం గమ నార్హం. మరో ముఖ్యమైన అంశం మోడీ ప్రభావం తప్ప ప్రభంజనం ఏదీ లేదని కూడా తేలిపోతుంది. స్థానిక ఎన్నికల నాటికి తెలుగుదేశం బిజెపితో పొత్తు పెట్టుకోలేదు గనక లౌకికపార్టీగా అన్ని తరగతులు ఓట్లు తెచ్చుకుని వుండే అవకాశం వుంది. కాని మోడీ ప్రధానమైన ప్రచారం ప్రారంభమైన తర్వాత మైనార్టీల ఓటింగును గణనీయంగా కోల్పోవడం సంభవం. ఈ అంశం లోక్సభ స్థానాల విషయంలో మనకు కనిపిస్తుంది. కనీసం ఆరు లోక్సభ స్థానాల్లో వారి ఓటింగు గణనీయంగా వుంది. అక్కడంతా వైసీపీ గెలిచే సూచనలు వున్నాయి. సోమవారం విడుదలైన కొన్ని జాతీయ ఛానళ్ల ఎగ్జిట్ పోల్కూ, ప్రజాశక్తి పోల్కూ అంకెల విషయంలో దాదాపు ఏకాభిప్రాయం వుండటం గమనించవచ్చు. ఇతర శక్తులలో వామపక్షాలూ కూడా ఎక్కడా పాగా వేయలేకపోయాయి.
Mind says the same..even though different matter with heart..
uravakonda segement lo 5 zptcs
ycp-4
tdp-1
Dont get discouraged…We are winning assembly elections for sure. Note my word, 150 MLAs are for us. No doubt about it. 22 MPs YSR padakaale manaku raksha. Sharmilamma words gurthu pettukondi…yellaiah ayina pullaiah ayina mana daggaraki ravalasinde…
http://www.10tv.in/news-breakfast/MLC-Nageswar-on-Local-Body-Elections-42546
Many things have changed after local elections… so don’t worry about these results.
1. TDP announced tieup with BJP –So, Christians and muslims moved away from TDP
2. Kapu Sangam supported Jagan
3. Brahmana Sangam supported Jagan
4. Vaddera Sangam supported Jagan
5. Yadava Sangam supported Jagan .
6. TDP/Modi/Pavan did too much negative campaign on Jagan, whereas Jagan went with positive campaign.. Neutral voters got fed up with TDP’s excessive propoganda.. It is fetching for Jagan as seen during bi-elections.
7. Clashes between TDP and BJP and ex-congress leaders over tickets… that chandrababu had to announce the candidates in 5 stages. That indicates the weakness..
and there is a record polling of 82% for assembly elections..
So, there is no doubt about Jagan’s victory.. lets wait and see..
I think hte caste sangams support both parites ..They issue state in support of bioth the parties by one or other leader in the sangam.
Caste sangams have little impact. The voters in general matter . Local leadership makes the poor to vote. YSRCP has no local leadership at all.
any way we will wait till 16th. We were made to believe by sakshi that there is a wave. The fact is there is a wave for TDP
I think yes, even though people throng to both the parties meetings, finally on the d-day its the local leadership which will make them vote to the party, i think we cant beat TDP in poll management. The kind of votes TDP received in both Godavari dist + Krishna+ Anantapur is an indication of strong wave. If ZPTC won are having a difference of 100 across state this indicates the strong wave TDP is having.
Now with this platform as on 7th April YSJ did campaign with credibility as his main factor, i’m sure YSJ has indication that farmer loan waiver is working for TDP ason 7th April, thats the reason for him stressing in every meeting about how TDP will not be able to do it, but i that might backfire on YCP as this scheme is propogated more to people by YSJ rather than CBN :-), even though it is in -ve, we shouldn’t assume that people always think what we want them to think.
Why are the Yellow channels …
Etv, Abn, tv9, tv5,ntv, cvr etc etc not coming up with exit polls for SA assembly ??
May be because of local body elections ..ei roju chestaremo.
Chittoor district…
We got more majority seats in below constituencies..
Thamballa Palli
Madana Palli
Pileru
punguanur
palamaneru
satyavedu
biyyam madhu, chevireedy & Roja failed in local body elections…
We have shown good performance in kadapa, kurnool, chittoor, Nelloor, prakasam, guntur and srikakulam…
Very bad performance in EG, WG and Anantapur….
In EAST TDP gave tickets to wring guys..May be that will help us.
But to be frank godavari as a whole did not favor us..
inside information from various sources.. jagan is going to the majority.. dont worry about local polls
Jagan anna Padinaa Kastam Vrudaa Kaaduuuuu…Its my Gut Feeling
One thing i want to tell some how we miss East & West Govt dists
Dont worry brother. Lets check on 16th.
Accroding to Sakshi, We are going to win ZP CP in Kadapa, Kurnool, Nellore, Prakasam, Guntur, Krishna
In Anantapoor, same numbers for YCP and TDP, others 1. We may win if we get 1 from other.
Remaining places TDP is leading.
Vishakha also leading YCP in ZPTC
We lost Guntur and Krishna. We settled at 4. But I hope we will do better for MLA/MP’s
Comment by Gurava Reddy on Facebook.
ఇదీ లెక్క! వీటిల్లో ఏది తప్పైతే మళ్ళీ సేం ఆఫర్! నా గుండుకి గుండు కొట్టించండి!
అసెంబ్లీ:
వంద స్థానాల్లో గెలుపు నిశ్చయం
నలభై స్థానాల్లో హోరాహోరీ!
ముప్పైఐదు స్థానాల్లో ఓటమి!
అందుకే నా లెక్క 120
లోక్సభ:
పదిహేడు స్థానాల్లో గెలుపు నిశ్చయం
ఆరు స్థానాల్లో హోరాహోరీ!
రెండు స్థానాల్లో ఓటమి!
అందుకే నా లెక్క 20
వీటిల్లో ఏది తప్పైతే మళ్ళీ సేం ఆఫర్! నా గుండుకి గుండు కొట్టించండి!
Emi lekko defend cheyalekha chastunnam
SIR Gurava Garu ,
we had lot of respect on you . I even wants same nos to YSRCongress.
AS per my point its always best from you sir advises some suggestions to help Our Party system not like this no`s . We are soldiers we can work even its close …..
I told my friends I can work up to 2024 for YSRCP no matter win or loose .spend some energy on people issues every day .
Regards,
Rajasekhara.
Farmers loan waiver may be working for TDP in rural.. this is big concern for me…
From novice party to a matured party YSRCP today showed an amazing performance. Please appreciate the party for its achievement to get these many MPTC’s and ZPTC’s. I dont think even TDP performed better even after 1983 elections. Guys assembly elections is different.
Farmers loan was not an issue for zptc or Mptc. It is for assembly. Just wsit two more days
@ Sarma :- I would think otherwise, I’ve seen good number of times, CBN mentioning farmers loan waiver, during his padayatra, the message of farmer loan waiver has gone to the ground by 8th April, adding to that YSJ mentioning that CBN will not be able to do this and he is lying, is need to be seen whether it bakcfired (or) brought some swing back to YCP?
Updates from Kadiri … 3 zptc (Kadiri rural,Talupula,Tanakal) for YSRCP 2 for (NPkunta,nallachervu) TDP… Gandlapenta 10 votes lead by YCP ….recounting
According to various surveys my predictions for assembly
Good performance ysrcp 100-110 seats
Better ysrcp 90-100 seats
worst case ysrcp 65-75 seats
Cnn ibh survey ysrcp 11-15
Indian today cicero 10
Abp nelson 18
C voter survey 14
Times now 8
Headlines today 14
Lens on news survey 12
BRING BABU BACK…….s its confirmed….he is back to his position of opposition .
చిప్పలో ..కొబ్బరి చిప్పలో చెయ్యేసి చెప్పు బావ ..చేసుకున్న పాపమూ వెంటబడి తరిమితే …….వెన్నుపోత్తులే….వెన్ను పోటులే …తొక్కి తొక్కినార తీసెననీ తెలుసుకో …చిప్పలో చెయ్యేసి చెప్పుబావ…(చిత్రం …..సమ న్యాయం ,రచయిత……లోక కళ్యాణ్ ,పాడిన వారు ….భువనేశ్వరి )
Piler ZPTC YCP Won. Piler MLA we have good chances now.
In Pileru constituency YSP won 4 out of 6 ZPTCs…TDP 1& JSP 1 won…
Yes. Good sign for our victory.
Hi YSRCong, I added you friend from my FB account. I did not receive any document from you yet
Me to waiting for the document, i have added you from account name Chenna Reddy
CM రమేష్ బెదిరింపు వల్లే …ఈ రోజు ప్రసారం కావాల్సిన NTV సర్వే ప్రసారం కాలేదు ,కాదు కూడా ,అంతే కాదు పచ్చ మీడియా ఒక్కటి కూడా సాహసం చెయ్యలేదు ..ఎందు వల్ల?
It seems TV channels were confused due to local body results..
No need to worry even if they are announced or not .. They will not have any impact on our success
Exit Poll done by famous agency :
YSR:103-113
TDP:060-070
MP:
YSR:20+
Good news..but why would MLA count not proportionate to MP count? Infact I was thinking there would be negative cross voting for MP due to BJP factor..I think YSRCP getting around 14 to 15 MP seats will land them with 110 seats atleast..
I am expecting the state exit polls tomorrow…I guess the tv channels are busy with ZPTC election. Or may be they are scared of telecasting the Exit polls.
నా నోటితో చెప్పలేను: విజయమ్మ గెలుపోటములపై లగడపాటి
విజయమ్మకు తెలుగుదేశం పార్టీ మద్దతు ఇచ్చిన భారతీయ జనతా పార్టీ అభ్యర్థి కంభంపాటి హరిబాబుతో హోరాహోరీ ఉంటుందని చెప్పారు. విశాఖ, మల్కాజిగిరి స్థానాల నుండి వైయస్సార్ కాంగ్రెసు పార్టీ నుండి కీలక అభ్యర్థులను బరిలోకి దింప వద్దని తాను సూచించానని తెలిపారు.
Lagadapati will be wrong about assembly this time. He did not do any survey. He is just going by his feel
Comedy lagadapati. You need to observe that Lagadapati did not revealed his survey with numbers. Usually he do that but he want to protect his dignity by stopping at a point instead of losing his credibility.
Feeling very tensed about assembly results..what are our chances if we loose both mptc,municipalities?evaraina kunchum goodnews cheppandi
Rahul, Mptc/zptc and municipolls are local elections. They were a month ahead of assembly. Dynamics are different.
We will win assembly. Just wait for two more days.
Chittoor YCP leading.
YCP 224 TDP 181
కొడాలి నాని… సూపర్… జెడ్ పి టి సి గెలిపించాడు.. మున్సిపాలిటీ గెలిపించాడు… క్రిష్ణా జిల్లా లో 104 వార్డ్ లు వాళ్లకు వస్తే వైకాపా కు 103 వచాయి… మీడియా ఇది హైలెట్ చేయదా…
you mean in vijayawada corp?
Gudivada…Krishna Dt…NTR’s Birth place……Bcos of Kodali Nani….Baali gaadu didn’t dare to contest from Gudivada…..He is the REAL MAN…though belongs to Kamma TRUE fighter and strong supporter of Jagan…
ok you mean gudiwada ok ….so we lost by one ward…..
Not in Gudiwada.. those are overall wards in Krishna district.. We won 3 municipalities there… Nuziweedu, Jaggayyapeta, Gudiwada and Pedana was tie ,but TDP won in lottery..
This is definitely great performance, since that vis a total TDP dominated area.
ఎగ్జిట్ పోల్స్ ఎందుకు ఆగిపోయాయి?
http://telugu.greatandhra.com/politics/elections-2014/exit-polls-enduku-agipoyayi-52616.html
guys ..hope for best .. who is king of AP?
రాయలసీమలో 54 స్థానాలు
వైసీపీ – 33
టీడీపీ – 21
ప్రకాశం, నెల్లూరు జిల్లాల్లో -22 స్థానాలు
వైసీపీ – 13
టీడీపీ – 9
గుంటూరు, కృష్ణ జిల్లాల్లో 32 స్థానాలు
టీడీపీ 21
వైసీపీ 11
ఈస్ట్, వెస్ట్ గోదావరి జిల్లాల్లో 34 స్థానాలు
టీడీపీ 20
వైసీపీ 14
విశాఖ, విజయనగరం, శ్రీకాకుళం జిల్లాల్లో 33 స్థానాలు
టీడీపీ 15
వైసీపీ 18
మొత్తం -175
వైసీపీ : 79 నుంచి 115
టీడీపీ : 60 నుంచి 65
10tv says BJP may win Raajampet…What’s happening…?
Mithun ReddyShould win…
No way, this MP const has good amount of Minority population with his father punganur in this const
No need to worry about Rajampet MP, In pungunur assembly segment itself he will get around 50k majority. In Rajampet parliament around 2-3 lakh muslims are there. Rajampet kinda ekkuva rural areas.. Cross voting chala takkuva untadi…I am sure he will get 1 lakh majority….
Wow, we won Prakasham ZP , samadhan for lagadapati 🙂
we are getting good number of ZPTC compared MPTC
Hi Anna.. As You are from NPKunta mandal, I will tell You the situation here. People voted for TDP(8/12) in MPTC elections and ZPTC for YSRCP… When comes to Assembly many people voted for YSRCP and for MP even TDP cadre also voted for YSRCP… Why people didnt vote for YSRCP in MPTC means.. If you look at the candidates… they are fit for nothing.. It may/may not be the case throughout the state…so dont worry about MPTC figures..
Good thing: Jammalamadugu ZPTC YCP Won.
Looks like chittoor district lo TDP areas lo counting jaruguta unnattu undi….I am sure Chitoor dt lo YCP ki Ekkuva vastayi MPTC seats….Chittoor west side chala strong ga undi YCP…
The MPTC/ZPTC is a positive sign for us.
10 tv survey:
Assembly:
Ycp: 87-90
Tdp: 82-85
Cong: 2
Jsp: 1
Mp:
Ycp:14
Tdp: 11
n tv survey ?
Not yet….10 tv just showing their survey…live disco is gng on watch 10 tv
These are the worst condition results… We will do much better…
if we get 14 mp’s we will easily get 100 to 110 seats
Happy with MPTC/ZPTC performance so far.
****April 7th-May 5th mana campaign full fledged ga jarigindi.. Jagan,sharmila,Vijayamma gaaru baaga campaign chesaru……
Same period CBN telangana lo tours, BJP-TDP alliance fight.
****Localbody elections lo atleast 30-50% minorities TDP/Congress/Independents ki vesuntaru. But Assembly lo manaku 90% pade chance undi….Remember 20% minority population undi.
*****BJP contest chesina 10-12 seats manaku advantage
*****TDP rebels unna 5-10 seats advantage
*****Vijayamma vizag MP advantage
****** East godavari candidate selection is good
Hope we will get majority to form gvt. Still i am positive…MP’s takkuva vachina parledu we should get 88+ seats.
Spot On…I am also thinking on the “OTHERS” section can be +ve side for us…April 5th onwards oopuandukundi mana campaign…again +ve…..And most importantly YCP’s goal was MP/MLAs….More focused on this…..
Manifesto release chesaka mana schemes anni poor people ki baaga reach ayyayi…Villages lo local candidate ni chusi vere parties ki vesina vaallu kuda MLA ki manaku pade chance undi…..Hope for best results.
YSR adds telecast ayyaka manaku voting perugutundi anukuntunnanu
Prajasakthi, Indian news network & 10tv Exit polls Survey :
TDP 82
YCP 89
Cong 1
JSP 1
Who is the king of seemandhra…? Who else…..Gun…gun…gun..Jaganreddy…any doubt…
http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewArticle/56375/poll-who-is-seemandhra-cm-/
My analysis is in the final figures there will be a lead of 600-800 MPTC for TDP vs YCP, which is not bad. I’m damn sure this gap has been replaced and moved in to +ve zone by YCP trio ( YSJ, YSS & YSV) between the period of 7th April – 5th May.
Hello Brother, We are already ahead of TDP… yellow channels adding others to TDP count…. need not to worry. I think we have strong wave in kadapa, kurnool, chittor, Anantapur, nellore, prakasam and partially in guntur. If we get 50% of seats in remaining districts… we will easily cross 100….but we need only 88… god help us… reward Jagan anna efforts…he really went through tough time in last 4.5 years…
Our strength is rural Andhra not urban Andhra. They can not be influenced by papers and media..Hope they remembered Rajanna and voted for us…
Did Ramkanth Reddy announced winnings seats ??
Till now Vizag,Guntur & Prakasham are running neck to neck kind of which is good sign, that YCP & TDP will win equal MLA seats in these dist
I think the game changer would be godavari dist, which are tilting favour of TDP, lets wait & see how it goes.
On 16th i’m expecting many a hearts will skip beat, with the kind of see-saw that will happen 🙂
Prakasam you can expect 10 seats no doubt at all
6 only
No way
These are some of the factors why we might have not met the expectations in the local polls …
1. Tdp has spent lots of money on these polls to give a boost to its cadre
2. Tdp has been facing these elections for the last 30 years and have good ground level organisation where as for YSRCP these are almost the first state wide local polls.
3. Local leaders depending too much on Jagan with not much effort from their side.
4 Most YSRCP leaders concentrating on assembly polls than the local ones
5. Local leaders not able to take the Fan symbol into the people( this has changed after Sakshi advts on Fan symbol and Jagan and Sharmilas whirlwind tour.
6. Not countering the Yellow media with regular press meets
7 Tdp managing to convince the hardcore local Cong voters / leaders to vote for Tdp
Whatever the case I think we did well against all odds even in the local polls. The fact that we have wiped out the Cong is a big thing.
We will wipe out KDP in the coming years.
JAGAN will be the first CM of SA.
@ Yellow fanatics…U have two days left….Mee Gajji vadhile dhaka…Vuthiki aresthadu …Jagrathha !!
On 16th, it may be smoother sail than this…
*** Rajakiyaallo Nandamuri Ramarao ki Vaarasulu leni Jaathi Nandamurifans……………veellu Vaarasulu ni Addheki thecchukovaali Budda NTR (Harikrishna illegal Son) and Pavan Kalyan (Package kosam pani chese Celebrity)
*** Rajakiyaallo Varasalu leni Jaathi………..meeru kudaa YS FANs ni YS Jagan meedha kudaa Mee Aadangili comments
*** Okademo mathisthimitham leni vaadu Hindupur lo kudaa aakariki Bhaarya Kuuthurlatho prachaaram
*** Okademo Natthi Nara Lokesh
*** Marokadu Sutthi Nara Babu
*** Gaddam mesthri Puunakam Pavan Kalyan
*** Idhiraa mee Addheku thechhukunna Varasula paristhithi…………Kulam kosam Party jendaa mose vaallu meekendhukura Raajakiyaalu, Prajaa sanskshemam……………””””Balayya DEVUDU cinema chusukuntu saavandiraa Nandamurifans”””
>>>> roju YS FANs dhi kadige mundhara…………..mundhara meedhi baagaa kadukkondiraa Nandamurifans
http://www.sakshi.com/news/elections-2014/ysrcp-winning-majority-seats-in-chittoor-district-130203?pfrom=home-top-story
Babu nandamuri fansuuu…..ma db lo unna discussions gurinchi mi db lo comments veyadam kadu….edana constructive discussion cheyandi….andariki manchidi….mari mi db lo almost manchi positions lo unna valle kada….andaru us returned or sw e kada andaru well educated kada….pakka vallani cheat chesthe bagupadtav, ninnu nuvu mosam cheakunte sanka naki potharu ra pichi pulka gallara…..cbn+ pk+modi != 50% of jagan…..mi cbn emcheyaleka antha mandi kalisi vellaru….but simham single….so result ento miku telsu…..wait for just 2 days…mi analysis chusam ga 2009 nd bipolls lo ……Ippudu veskondi na comment mida inko thread mi db lo…..
*** Every single comment of YSRCP FAN is valuable to Nandamurifans forum, and for each comment, they dedicate one thread with lot of love and devotion
*** Nandamurifans, simply ignore the fact that “”” Guruginjaki **** kindha nalupu theliyadhu anta”””
*** YSRCP Jagan, ivvaboye shocks ki vaniki chasthunnaaru
*** Rajakeeyalu cheyyadam YS FANs raktham lone vundhi…………Dhenikaina Ready nilabadi poradadaaniki
*** Nandamurifans Thuppupattina logics thone 10 years haayigaa Opposition lo gadipaaru………….same REPEAT
Easy brother. Wait till 16th evening…
Why there is difference in number between Sakshi & Eeenadu?
Eenadu and ABN always add the Others to their total . Chillari buddhulu akkadaki pothai…pachha chokka gallaki ??
They have two days left to smile.
Ysrcp leading in kadapa kurnool chittoor prakasham nellore guntur
Simple logic is from 8 districts kadapa, kurnool, chittor, anantapur, nellore, prakasam, ongole, guntur ysrcp will score more than 65 seats….so just 23 required for majority….we vl easily get these 23 seats from remaining 5 districts……missing this simple logic we r panic unnecessarily…… Worst case we vl get more than 90 seats….even everyone knows tat ycp vl form d govt….tats y tdp leaders are not so much excited abt municipolls…..even in anantapur we are going to win min 6 seats…anantapur, singanamala, puttaparty, guntakal, uravakonda, raptadu…..just wait 16th 11:00 am…..we vl see d news in all channels tat ycp has clear majority…..
@ Dileep …
Prakasam and Ongole are same dist. U are right we will get a good number of seats in those districts itself.
We Will Win and we are here to Stay.
We have wiped out the Cong and the next target is Tdp .
Yes anna….even in godavari dists we gave more seats to kapus….expecting more than 14 seats in godavari dists….observed one thing in puttaparty municipolls that puttaparty mla constituency has 6 mandals out of 6, 4 mandals are full ycp and 2 mandals are tdp wave….by doing all p&c ycp vl win puttaparty mla seat vth min 2k votes…..see balaya is facing neck to neck fit in hindupur….may be he can win but majority not more than 3k….like tat so many positive signs for us….dnt underestimate jagan….he has very clear abt wht he needs ….he is down to earth thinking person….we vl get 90 mlas nd 14 mps at any cost….
http://www.sakshi.com/news/andhra-pradesh/more-municipal-seats-to-tdp-but-votes-to-ysr-congress-party-130146?pfrom=home-todays-family
Jagan has wiped out the 120 yr old Cong from SA. The next target should be to wipe out the 30 yr old KDP.
సీమాంద్రలో వచ్చిన ఎమ్.పిటిసి మొదటి వెయ్యి ఫలితాలలో తెలుగుదేశం, వై.ఎస్.ఆర్.కాంగ్రెస్ లు హోరాహోరీగా ఉన్నట్లు కనిపిస్తుంది
. టిడిపి 501, వై.ఎస్.ఆర్.కాంగ్రెస్ 465, కాంగ్రెస్ 20, ఇతరులు 120 ఎమ్.పిటిసి స్థానాలు గెలుచుకున్నట్లు సమాచారం వస్తోంది.
Results so far are just unanimous elections. Zptcs are paper ballots, counting starts late.
Point is don’t be depressed or excited with these results, game changer is counting on 16th.
We will have final laugh.
ANDHRA PRADESH Party Parishad Results
YSRCP 7 / 325
TDP 1 / 254
ANDHRA PRADESH Party Parishad Results
YSRCP 7 325 0 0
TDP 1 254 0 0
Hai nandamurifans …..game is not over wait till may 16th.
Municipal n zptc mptc……..conducted bw march 30 to April 5 ……..30 days before general elections in dis 30 days lof of equations changed in favour for ysrcp
Latest…… YSRCP: ZPTC – 7 , MPTC – 316
TDP: ZPTC – 1 , MPTC – 250
We are way ahead.
After tdp+bjp alliance lot of equations changed………… muslims and Christian voters preferred ysrcp and voted ysrcp in assembly n lok sabha elections ……..45 constituency minority votes plays key role we can expect 90% votes transfered for ysrcp
Yes yes we are performing better den tdp party in zptc and mptc elections. …………..worst performance by tdp ……hence holding strong cader dey are not able to perform better…….dey may get 5% extra seats in zptc n mptc seats but ysrcp with strong cader we performed better
According our elections rural voters voted for ysrcp in assembly n lok sabha elections
YSRCP 190
TDP 177
Mptc ysrcp 125
Tdp 141 (30 yrs old party )
Rural voters prefer ysrcp its clear
tdp 30 yrs party hence dey hav good structure in gross root level. …….ysrcp being 4 yrs party we are facing 1st time zptc mptc elections with out strong cader …….hence we are performing better in rural areas
MPTC there were quite a few unanimous for TDP compared to YSRCP. So if we take them out and see we may have equally good number.
MPTC YSRCP 187 TDP 166
the Tdp(congress) strategy is to fare well in muncipal, zptc etc elections and boost the tdp morale,, ( any sense to put local elections just 1 month before general elections) but due to supreme court, their plans busted.
nobody knows who voted whom until may 12.
its a blessing in disquise to ysrcp.
శ్రీకాకుళం పార్లమెంటు పరిధి లోని 7 నియోజకవర్గాల్లో విజయవాడ కు చెందిన పందెం రాయుళ్ళు నిన్న, మొన్న చేసిన రాండమ్ సర్వే ఫలితాలు
మొత్తం :3686
YSR :1874(51%)
TDP :1636(44%)
మహిళలు:664
YSR :366(55%)
TDP :298(45%)
శ్రీకాకుళం పార్లమెంటు
TDP :1800(49%)
YSR :1702(46%)
మహిళలు శాంపిల్ తక్కువగా ఉన్నది , మహిళల ఎక్కువ సంఖ్యలో పాల్గొని ఉంటె YSR MP అభ్యర్ధి కి అవకాశాలు ఉన్నాయి
Hello Anna, Please share Nilesan assembly exit polls?
AC Nielsen has given 18 MP seats to us but we will get more than 20
Anna, Do you have any exit polls from local channels like NTV, TV5, TV9…
Sorry to bother you anna!!
Relax, Jagan will have the last laugh.
శ్రీకాకుళం పార్లమెంటు పరిధి లోని 7 నియోజకవర్గాల్లో విజయవాడ కు చెందిన పందెం రాయుళ్ళు నిన్న, మొన్న చేసిన రాండమ్ సర్వే ఫలితాలు
మొత్తం :3686
YSR :1874(51%)
TDP :1636(44%)
మహిళలు:664
YSR :366(55%)
TDP :298(45%)
శ్రీకాకుళం పార్లమెంటు
TDP :1800(49%)
TDP :1702(46%)
మహిళలు శాంపిల్ తక్కువగా ఉన్నది , మహిళల ఎక్కువ సంఖ్యలో పాల్గొని ఉంటె YSR MP అభ్యర్ధి కి అవకాశాలు ఉన్నాయి
ధర్మవరం లో లాస్ట్ 5 ఇయర్స్ లో దాదాపు 500 కోట్ల రూపాయలతో అభివృద్ధి చేసిన వెంకట్రామి రెడ్డి కి మునిసిపోల్ల్స్ లో దారుణమైన ఓటమి .. వాటర్ ప్రాబ్లం లేకుండా చేసాడు.. .. రౌడి వసూళ్లు కంట్రోల్ లో పెట్టి అభివృద్ధి చేసాడు…..
Around 8k votes tho poyindi….Assembly chances ela unnayi?
I am expecting Chittoor,Kadapa,Kurnool,Nellore,Prakasham,Krishna,Guntur
I will be happy if we give close fight in Godavari districts,Anantapur,Srikakulam,Vizag,viajayanagaram.
Hope Min 10 jilla Parishit expected
Might be very high expectations i would say, i would be fine if it is 5-6 YCP, 7-8 TDP. TDP is too good in poll management which seems to be lacking in YCP, as one of the reasons for the debacle.